1. Go GReeN or GO Home!!!!
According to reports in The Zimbabwean of 24 March 2010, Zimbabwe is becoming more vulnerable to climatic
changes, and local climatologists have predicted disastrous effects on the
environment, agriculture and food security, health, water resources, economic
activities, human migration and physical infrastructure.
Climate change is the alteration of the earth's
climate caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. This eventually
leads to global warming. According to climatologists, if recent trends continue
or accelerate as per scientific prediction, the earth's temperature may rise by
four to six degrees Celsius by 2100. Other causes of climate change are caused
by the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and modern farming methods.
Zimbabwe not spared
Zimbabwe
has not been spared climatic changes; in fact, the current dry spells affecting
the country have been attributed to climate change. Dr Priscah Mugabe, Deputy
Director of the Institute of Environmental Studies at the University of
Zimbabwe, has noted the effects of climate change reflected in rainfall
patterns in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2005. Mugabe said that there have been
notable shifts in the onset of the rains, the increased frequency of heavy
rainfall events, more tropical cyclones and increasingly intense mid-term dry
spells.
She noted
that there had been shifts in natural regions such as Chinhoyi, Chibero and
their surroundings which were formerly in natural region 2 but have now been
classified under natural region 3. The size of natural region 1 has been
reduced, while natural region 2 has been pushed further east and natural region
3 has shifted slightly upwards. Kwekwe and surroundings now classified as
natural region 4.
Dr Mugabe
said that ecosystem changes were being dramatised by grasslands shifting to
shrubby savannah and other biodiversity changes.
Agriculture and food security
On the agriculture and food security sector, crop yields in
marginal zones have become more variable. Yields from rain-fed agriculture are
expected to decline by up to 50 per cent by 2020. Mugabe said that climate
change introduces greater variability in maize yields. "There is a strong
likelihood that climate change will make natural region 4 a non-maize producing
area," she says.
Reduced livestock production is anticipated as a result of a
reduced forage base for cattle as well as the increase of pests and diseases
like tsetse flies and ticks. "A shift to smaller browsing animals like
goats is anticipated," Dr Mugabe said. A reduced productivity of
crop-livestock systems of marginal rural areas is likely.
Health sector
On the health sector, an increase in malnutrition, with
implications on child growth and development, has been anticipated. Also, it is
likely that there will be an increase in the distribution of the
malaria-bearing Anopheles gambiae mosquito has been. High elevation areas
currently on the fringes of endemic malaria zones will be most susceptible to
infestation.
Dr Mugabe said that the implication would be most notably felt
in an increased burden on health care systems. On water resources, she said
that the challenges of availability and accessibility were anticipated to
particularly affect women. Reduced irrigation output would be exacerbated by
other factors, for example deforestation and siltation. Changes in hydrology
and run-off are very likely to occur.
Anticipated economic impacts include increased food prices,
diversion of resources towards relief, loss of employment opportunities and
compromised hydro-based industries. For example, at Lake Kariba from 1987 to
2005, the lake surface temperature rose by about 1 degree Celsius,
significantly reducing kapenta fish yields.
On the Zambezi River, impacts have seen reduced flow affecting
hydro-electricity generation, biodiversity, affected fish breeding conditions
and tourism. Human migration is also being affected resulting in localized
population concentrations posed by climate variability.
A new breed of refugees
Refugees are anticipated to migrate into new settlements seeking
livelihoods and placing additional demands on infrastructure and ecosystem
services. "A variety of migration patterns could thus emerge for example
repetitive migrants and short term shock migrants with implications for
ecosystems and land use alterations," said Dr Mugabe. She added that
physical infrastructure could fall prone to damage and destruction due to
extreme events such as floods.
Millennium Development Goals (MDC) attainment will also be
affected. For example, the eradication of extreme poverty is unlikely due to
reduced agricultural production. Also, attaining primary education will be
impossible due to gender imbalances and drop outs. Reducing child mortality
will be an uphill task due to increased diseases and combating major diseases
like HIV and AIDS will be a major problem due to increased pressures and food
insecurity.
Dr Mugabe also said that there was need for institutional
support for research to understand local risks, sensitivities and adaptation
options in response to climate change. She said research on indigenous
knowledge with science, gender variability and appropriate adaptation systems
was recommended. Innovative technologies like water harvesting, soil water
conservation and grain post harvest technologies have to be introduced
including sending appropriate messages on extension, infrastructural
development and disaster management.
She added that climate change in Zimbabwe was certain,
unreliable and unpredictable. Dr Basile Tambashe, Country Representative for
the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Zimbabwe, said that climate change
was not just about technology. "We have now reached a point where humanity
is approaching the brink of disaster and Zimbabwe is beginning to feel the
impact of climate change," says Tambashe.In light of all this the Rotaract Club of Matopos has
taken a step towards mitigating the effects of climatic change by embarking on
a "Go green
or go home" public awareness project.The project
currently being run on twitter, seeks to educate the public on the effects of
climatic change whilst providing green tips to live a green lifestyle.To join
the cause follow us on twitter @matoposrotaract
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